The Trident Question
THE TRIDENT QUESTION
In late February and early March of 2014 Russian special forces seized and quickly annexed the Crimean Peninsula four days after the Ukrainian “Revolution of Dignity”. It would be one of the first military operations of what would grow and become known as the “War in the Donbas” and the Russian proxy war in Ukraine which would last from April 2014 to February 24th, 2022, the day of the full scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian military.
In the days immediately following the annexation conservative leaders railed on then President Obama not only for his lack of action but also his “weak” stance on foreign policy which in their minds created the precedence that allowed President Putin to feel confident enough to take such action. These narratives would continue throughout the Obama Administration and then fade out of the political sphere under the Trump Administration before reappearing in late 2021 just months after the Biden Administration’s catastrophic Withdrawal from Afghanistan as the Russian military build-up on the Ukrainian border began catching the eyes of intelligence communities and world leaders.
Historically speaking the conservative right in the United States has seen the Russian Federation (and its larger Soviet Union previously) as one of America’s largest adversaries immediately after the fall of Nazi Germany for nearly 76 consecutive years (2021). So why the sudden change of heart in February 2022, a complete almost historic 180. My personal opinion is that this change of heart is rooted in the socio-political crisis the United States is enduring and greatly fueled by the break-off section of the conservative right affiliated with Donald Trump as the more traditional mainstream Republican types continue to support a foreign policy that supports a greater military industrial complex.
Although I believe some of this is the outcome of reactionary, pancaking politics, the Donald Trump conservatives simply opting for the opposition to a policy under President Biden simply because they do not want to support the ultra liberal President who has shunned their demographic, I believe there are also more reasons why they could feel this way. The more Trump break-off conservative types are often more inclined to embrace isolationist policies as Trump branded himself as such (he is not, an isolationist would not have chosen H.R. McMaster [a member of the Council on Foreign Relations] and John Bolton as his National Security Advisors.). One of the few slightly “isolationist” policies Trump had was withdrawing less than 1,000 American troops from Syria, but still leaving a smaller footprint and effectively pushing the Kurds into embracing a relationship with Bashar Al-Assad and the Syrian Regime in order to have an ally in the region to combat Turkish incursions and a slowly rebuilding ISIS.
Aside from the hypocrisy of their views on the Russo-Ukraine War, what else could be fueling this view? In their defense their views may also come from a place of legitimacy. Many of these individuals became extremely jaded by Biden policies in the aftermath of the catastrophic and chaotic withdrawal of Afghanistan that left 13 American troops killed, dozens more wounded, morale injury and mental/emotional trauma for hundreds of American service members while also having a complete lack of accountability from every single military and political official who played a role in that.
I’d also argue that these sentiments may be a reflection of the 3 year witch hunt set forth on Donald Trump having won the 2016 election through Russian collusion by Democrats. For 3 years leaders of the Democratic Party and Mainstream Media outlets passed around would could only be described as lies about Donald Trump having ties to President Putin and the Russian Federation. They claimed that Donald Trump not only had direct ties to President Putin but that he had won through because of a successful Russian disinformation campaign while they successfully ran a misinformation campaign of their own. (Another example also of a complete lack of accountability and ownership). This is not to say there wasn’t any Russian interference in the 2016 election, of course there was, as there is in every election cycle, as we inevitably carry out interference of our on elections in foreign nations as well.
Another area of influence may come from the 2019 scandal regarding a phone call between then President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy which was made public through a whistleblower complaint that alleged Donald Trump had threatened an end to aid to Ukraine in order to coerce the eastern European country into providing damning material against Joe Biden and the Democratic Party in order to bolster his run for office in the 2020 election. I would advise all parties to dig into this scandal before believing narratives of any kind from any “side” or party.
While these feelings related to the incidents could be valid we should also examine some of the narratives about the Russo-Ukrainian War and greater Ukraine now being pushed from this Donald Trump affiliated conservative group while also diving into the hypocrisy of the Democratic left that has risen from this conflict.
“Money Laundering” - The claim of money laundering is one I have seen frequently spread around, this belief and implication that all aid going to Ukraine is just money that’s getting laundered and sent back into the Democratic Party. This is outright factually wrong. Close to a third of the aid packages to Ukraine have been in the form of cash, predominantly for humanitarian assistance and salaries of Ukrainian medical staff as their hospitals have been over worked and the country simply does not have the economic backing to keep these systems running. The vast majority of the aid is military assistance in form of weapons, equipment, gear etc. If there is any conspiracy here, it’s the Military Industrial Complex (which is not a secret or conspiracy as it is out in the public limelight constantly). The United States Government gives, or sells, military equipment in order to generate contracts to the Defense Industry to rebuild and replace the items donated. This is the case for every war and is far from being a secret, it is also an effect of the revolving door of Washington, retired field grade officers moving to private sector defense and then to public foreign policy positions.
“The Missing Money” - In 2023 the Department of Defense reported a $6.2 billion accounting error related to military aid to Ukraine. This quickly turned into “The Pentagon lost $6.2 billion” or “The Pentagon laundered $6.2 billion”, which was not the case. To be frank even if this was the case, why would the Pentagon openly and publicly admit it? The reality of the issue is that the equipment was simply over-estimated. The Pentagon accounting error was the result of the value of the weapons and equipment donated being listed at the replacement value rather than the book value. An example: Let’s say an HMMWV cost $10 to replace, while a used one in the US military stocks has a depreciated value of $5. While giving Ukraine the $5 HMMWV, it reported the $10 on paper. The irony of the accusation is that in reality the US Government actually sent “less money” to Ukraine than a “missing $6 billion”, this is a mistake ironically the Trump conservatives should have been happy with.
“Ukraine is a corrupt nation of Nazis” - This is my personal favorite and this point will expose both sides. A common narrative amongst this group is that part of the reason they do not support the aid to Ukraine is due to it being a corrupt nation full of “Nazis”, this is somewhat comedic as this is quite literally the only time in the past 6 years (2022 backwards) this group has been even remotely concerned about Nazis. In 2016 hundreds of far-right Neo Nazis marched through Charlottesville, Virginia with tiki torches, some sporting Swastika armbands, waving flags of Nazi Germany, others seen doing the Sieg Heil, they were mixed in with Confederate-apologists and a wide variety of far-right ideological groups. This rally was drastically downplayed by the Trump group as every similar act or incidents have been downplayed. Another example would be the Proud Boys who continue to protest around the country, they are often dismissed as “Feds”, as is every mass shooter or domestic terrorist who are also often labeled as “Feds” or “CIA Operatives”. Any and every case of American Neo-Nazism is downplayed or played off as a US Government operation while they remain steadfast in their narrative that there vast majority of the Ukrainian military is made up of Neo-Nazis, therefore we cannot provide them with military assistance.
Of course there is documented evidence and proof that there have been Neo-Nazis in very specific units (predominantly in the early days of the Donbas War) however the claim that the majority of Ukraine’s military is full of Nazis is not only a Russian propaganda talking point to justify their invasion but an outright lie. I have personally been to Ukraine twice now, once in Early March/April in 2022 and this recent trip. We have had the opportunity to meet and speak with soldiers and veterans from across the Ukrainian military in multiple regions and cities and found that the overwhelming majority are not at all affiliated with any Neo-Nazi ideology.
Now it’s time to flip the coin. From 2014 to 2022 liberal media outlets posted article after article about the issues of corruption in Ukraine, missing journalists and armed Neo-Nazi groups in Ukraine, the latter of which has almost entirely dropped off the discussion, the former of which has been entirely forgotten about. While liberal media now refers to Ukraine has the gateway to Europe and a glistening democracy, the war a fight for democracy itself, that same media reported heavily on the incidents of assassinations or disappearances of journalists from 2014 - 2022, another example of concern raised and then simply forgotten about.
The NATO Question - This is another two fold issue. On one hand you have this sect of the right who believes that this is some grand conspiracy by NATO to start World War 3, or that NATO will allow Ukraine into its coalition while the Russo-Ukraine war rages, thus forcing its members to embrace Article 5 and join into the conflict directly. These accusations are false and are nothing more than fear p0rn. On the other hand, you have those who claim that if Russia is not stopped in Ukraine that they will continue on to the rest of Europe, this is extremely unlikely as that would result in World War 3, neither President Biden, nor Zelenskyy nor Putin want World War 3 nor is there a remote chance that Russia will move on NATO countries if taking Ukraine in its entirety.
This blog post could go on and on, addressing various hypocritical talking points or actions but it would be useless to continue, by now you, the reader, should have a larger perspective. Maybe not. Regardless, the quick, blind allegiance and trend aesthetics of the left is concerning, following and supporting a narrative as long as it is endorsed by their establishment figures and passed as “the right side of history” while you also have the contrarian reactionary right who has seemingly abandoned a geopolitical standpoint they’ve held for over 7 decades because it’s politically convenient.
At the end of the day, complexities aside, politics aside, a sovereign allied nation has been invaded and occupied. The American people, the left and the right, must ask themselves if they are ready and willing to continue a long standing American tradition of abandoning our allies in their greatest time of need. The Ukrainians are not asking for soldiers. They are asking for ammunition. As I write this the defenders are in dug out defensive positions near Chasiv Yar holding a line to the best of their ability. The defenders there spoke only of needing mortars, drones and artillery.
People thousands of miles away living in privileged lives of luxury and commodities, far from consequences for their words, will also speak the loudest and most inflammatory or dismissive, lacking empathy. It’s my personal opinion at the end of the day that the Ukrainians deserve that ammunition to hold that line. Every nation has a right to defend itself and its people. There will surely be plenty who disagree with this and that’s fine. That’s the right of a people who are not currently under occupation.